As the 2012 elections draws near, it seems inevitable that we will have a presidential runoff and another coalition government. This is in consideration to the nature of our current politics and the constitutional requirement which makes it mandatory that a winning candidate receives 50+1 vote from all votes cast.
As it stands now, and if the recent opinion polls are anything to go by, none among all the leading presidential hopefuls meet the constitutional requirement.
On the other hand, although the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) presidential candidate Raila Odinga has been leading in all the opinion polls for the race to State House; it remains to be seen if that will translate into an outright win come the next general elections.
As for now, it is still a pipe dream for any presidential hopeful to emerge an outright winner in the next elections. This judgment is informed by the electorates voting pattern in the country.
If we are to go by the previous voting patterns, then it is most likely that the same tendency will be replicated in 2012. However, that is not to say that the current political prospect cannot change drastically – in fact, I envisage this happening soon or later and in particular as 2012 elections approaches.
One of the immediate factors that are bound to rouse some serious political alignments in the country is the outcome of the ICC cases against the six Kenyans famously branded “The Ocampo six” who are the main suspects in the 2007/2008 post election violence that rocked the country.
It does not matter what the ICC judges decides regarding the two cases they are handling at current – whatever the decision, I am certain that Kenyans will witness a lot of political activities that will shape up the political outlook leading to the next general elections.
Most Kenyans are praying and hoping that the political activities leading to 2012 general elections will not trigger unrest in the country. Even so, most analysts suppose that it is unlikely for such unrest to recur.
Nevertheless, it should not distress us the most when trying to figure out what kind of political prospect we will have in the coming days than the fact that we will most likely have a presidential runoff and also end up with yet another coalition government after the 2012 elections.
I say the above simply because, a majority of our politicians and indeed all leading presidential hopefuls do not appeal to all the tribes in the entire country. Instead, most of them appeal the most to their respective tribes. Moreover, we have heard and witnessed some of these politicians saying that we (meaning our tribe) must have a PRESIDENTIAL candidate and that we will not support others but our own.
For instant, Wamalwa is seeking the Luhya votes for his presidential bid, Ruto on the other hand, the Kalenjin votes, Kalonzo the Kamba votes, Uhuru the GEMA votes, Raila on the other hand is expecting to ride on the Luo votes etc. This trend seems to be taking roots...and some politicians have spoken as much.
Still, if nothing alters this development and in particular if the electorates vote for the leading presidential contenders due to their ethnic backgrounds other than their experience and leadership abilities, then we must expect a presidential runoff and even an alliance.
The outcome of the presidential runoff would then determine the kind of the government Kenyans will end up with. In the face of it, Kenya is most likely to have another coalition government after 2012 general elections, especially if the winning presidential candidate will have come from a coalition of parties.
The biggest question we should all ask ourselves is, ARE WE AS KENYANS READY FOR ANOTHER COALITION GOVERNMENT?
I am certain that if we will end up having another coalition government, the arrangement will be slightly different from the current one. Nevertheless, coalitions are coalitions and if the true spirit of the same is not adhered to, then squabbles are to be anticipated any time.
We, having had a firsthand experience of a coalition government, it would be foolhardy to assume that if we have another, led by different persons – things would be much different. Nevertheless, our current politicians are the same and we must expect some bickering in any other coalition they may form.
Thus, my main worry is, if Kenya ends up having another coalition government after next year’s elections and soon or later the same betrayal that has characterized our politics for decades emerges – wrangles then ensues; is it not the electorates – the Kenyan people who will have ultimately lost again to our shrewd politicians?
What we must bear in mind is that some of these politicians have been there long enough, have acquired vast wealth – some through corruption and therefore are fighting hard to have in place a government that will serve their interest and not the interest of the electorates.
For that reason, unless we, the electorates see beyond the horizon of the unfolding political schemes being schemed by our tribal chieftains, then we will have to wait longer before we can fully realize our dreams as a people and a Nation. If we allow ourselves to be divide into tribal lines and subsequently forced to vote according to our respective tribes in 2012, then we have to expect nothing short of a coalition government which in the end may not deliver our expectations.
Thus, in my opinion, it would be prudent if Kenyans can screen all the presidential hopefuls and in their own wisdom – without the influence of their respective tribal chieftains, identify the right candidate, align themselves with the same and his/her respective political party and in 2012 vote in the same.
If the above can happen, then it would spare the country from having a presidential runoff and another coalition government.
It would be much better to have a single party in government and an opposition to check on its excesses than have a squabbling coalition government for another five years.
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